CINDEN
Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Broncos win 5,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Bengals cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Strength: Broncos rank 4th in pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed (-0.08).
- Strength: Broncos rank 5th in turnover margin per game (+0.6).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Upset odds: Bengals win 4,900 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Broncos 16th (+0.4).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Bengals running game (20th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -0.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.9 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · DEN n/a | CIN 49% · DEN 51% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN +104 · DEN -104 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 24, CIN 23.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 16 and DEN by 17.
Side by side
| CIN | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-29 | 2025 Wk 4 | CIN 3 @ DEN 28 | DEN | DEN -7.5 |
| 2024-12-28 | 2024 Wk 17 | DEN 24 @ CIN 30 | CIN | CIN -3.5 |
| 2021-12-19 | 2021 Wk 15 | CIN 15 @ DEN 10 | CIN | DEN -3 |
| 2018-12-02 | 2018 Wk 13 | DEN 24 @ CIN 10 | DEN | DEN -3.5 |
| 2017-11-19 | 2017 Wk 11 | CIN 20 @ DEN 17 | CIN | DEN -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away