DENCIN
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Broncos 16th (+0.4).
- Simulation: Bengals win 5,780 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Bengals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Broncos cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to Bengals in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Broncos win 4,220 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
- Single-game variance: one turnover or special-teams play can swing an NFL game by a touchdown.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.9 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · CIN n/a | DEN 42% · CIN 58% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +137 · CIN -137 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 24, DEN 22.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 14 and CIN by 20.
Side by side
| DEN | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-29 | 2025 Wk 4 | CIN 3 @ DEN 28 | DEN | DEN -7.5 |
| 2024-12-28 | 2024 Wk 17 | DEN 24 @ CIN 30 | CIN | CIN -3.5 |
| 2021-12-19 | 2021 Wk 15 | CIN 15 @ DEN 10 | CIN | DEN -3 |
| 2018-12-02 | 2018 Wk 13 | DEN 24 @ CIN 10 | DEN | DEN -3.5 |
| 2017-11-19 | 2017 Wk 11 | CIN 20 @ DEN 17 | CIN | DEN -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away