CINDET
Cincinnati Bengals @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
50% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 50% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Home field: Lions play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Lions win 5,040 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 7th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Lions rank 10th (3.8), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Strength: Lions rank 1st in passing offense, EPA per dropback (+0.32).
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Upset odds: Bengals win 4,960 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 16 or more.
- History: Bengals won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.9 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · DET n/a | CIN 50% · DET 50% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN +101 · DET -101 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 27, CIN 27.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 16 and DET by 17.
Side by side
| CIN | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | DET 37 @ CIN 24 | DET | DET -10.5 |
| 2021-10-17 | 2021 Wk 6 | CIN 34 @ DET 11 | CIN | CIN -3.5 |
| 2017-12-24 | 2017 Wk 16 | DET 17 @ CIN 26 | CIN | DET -3 |
| 2013-10-20 | 2013 Wk 7 | CIN 27 @ DET 24 | CIN | DET -2.5 |
| 2009-12-06 | 2009 Wk 13 | DET 13 @ CIN 23 | CIN | CIN -13.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away