DETCIN
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Simulation: Bengals win 5,820 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Bengals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- History: Bengals won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Lions win 4,180 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 7th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Lions rank 10th (3.8), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -2.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.9 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · CIN n/a | DET 42% · CIN 58% |
| Fair moneyline | DET +139 · CIN -139 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 28, DET 26.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 14 and CIN by 20.
Side by side
| DET | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | DET 37 @ CIN 24 | DET | DET -10.5 |
| 2021-10-17 | 2021 Wk 6 | CIN 34 @ DET 11 | CIN | CIN -3.5 |
| 2017-12-24 | 2017 Wk 16 | DET 17 @ CIN 26 | CIN | DET -3 |
| 2013-10-20 | 2013 Wk 7 | CIN 27 @ DET 24 | CIN | DET -2.5 |
| 2009-12-06 | 2009 Wk 13 | DET 13 @ CIN 23 | CIN | CIN -13.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away