CINGB
Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Packers 15th (+0.9).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 1.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bengals win 5,150 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to Bengals in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Packers win 4,850 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Packers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Packers rank 3rd (4.5), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 17 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -0.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.4 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · GB n/a | CIN 52% · GB 48% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN -106 · GB +106 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 24, CIN 24.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 17 and GB by 17.
Side by side
| CIN | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 5-3 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | CIN 18 @ GB 27 | GB | GB -14 |
| 2021-10-10 | 2021 Wk 5 | GB 25 @ CIN 22 | GB | GB -2 |
| 2017-09-24 | 2017 Wk 3 | CIN 24 @ GB 27 | GB | GB -7 |
| 2013-09-22 | 2013 Wk 3 | GB 30 @ CIN 34 | CIN | GB -3 |
| 2009-09-20 | 2009 Wk 2 | CIN 31 @ GB 24 | CIN | GB -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away