GBCIN
Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Simulation: Bengals win 6,090 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Packers 15th (+0.9).
- Home field: Bengals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 1.1 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Packers win 3,910 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Packers rank 3rd (4.5), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -3.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.4 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · CIN n/a | GB 39% · CIN 61% |
| Fair moneyline | GB +156 · CIN -156 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 26, GB 23.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 13 and CIN by 21.
Side by side
| GB | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 4-2 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | CIN 18 @ GB 27 | GB | GB -14 |
| 2021-10-10 | 2021 Wk 5 | GB 25 @ CIN 22 | GB | GB -2 |
| 2017-09-24 | 2017 Wk 3 | CIN 24 @ GB 27 | GB | GB -7 |
| 2013-09-22 | 2013 Wk 3 | GB 30 @ CIN 34 | CIN | GB -3 |
| 2009-09-20 | 2009 Wk 2 | CIN 31 @ GB 24 | CIN | GB -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away