CINHOU
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Texans 20th (-0.7).
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Simulation: Bengals win 5,180 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Texans win 4,820 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Texans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Texans rank 4th (4.0), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 17 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -0.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.1 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · HOU n/a | CIN 52% · HOU 48% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN -107 · HOU +107 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 23, CIN 23.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 17 and HOU by 17.
Side by side
| CIN | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | CIN 20 @ HOU 6 | CIN | HOU -3 |
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 10 | HOU 30 @ CIN 27 | HOU | CIN -5.5 |
| 2020-12-27 | 2020 Wk 16 | CIN 37 @ HOU 31 | CIN | HOU -7.5 |
| 2017-09-14 | 2017 Wk 2 | HOU 13 @ CIN 9 | HOU | CIN -5.5 |
| 2016-12-24 | 2016 Wk 16 | CIN 10 @ HOU 12 | HOU | HOU -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away