HOUCIN
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Texans 20th (-0.7).
- Simulation: Bengals win 6,040 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Bengals in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Texans win 3,960 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Texans rank 4th (4.0), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -3.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.1 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · CIN n/a | HOU 40% · CIN 60% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU +153 · CIN -153 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 24, HOU 21.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 13 and CIN by 20.
Side by side
| HOU | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | CIN 20 @ HOU 6 | CIN | HOU -3 |
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 10 | HOU 30 @ CIN 27 | HOU | CIN -5.5 |
| 2020-12-27 | 2020 Wk 16 | CIN 37 @ HOU 31 | CIN | HOU -7.5 |
| 2017-09-14 | 2017 Wk 2 | HOU 13 @ CIN 9 | HOU | CIN -5.5 |
| 2016-12-24 | 2016 Wk 16 | CIN 10 @ HOU 12 | HOU | HOU -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away