CININD
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Colts -8.0.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 2.5 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Turnover margin per game: Bengals rank 8th (+0.5), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 3,550 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 15th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -4 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.3 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · IND n/a | CIN 64% · IND 36% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN -182 · IND +182 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 23, CIN 27.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 21 and IND by 12.
Side by side
| CIN | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-10 | 2023 Wk 14 | IND 14 @ CIN 34 | CIN | CIN -3 |
| 2020-10-18 | 2020 Wk 6 | CIN 27 @ IND 31 | IND | IND -7.5 |
| 2018-09-09 | 2018 Wk 1 | CIN 34 @ IND 23 | CIN | CIN -1 |
| 2017-10-29 | 2017 Wk 8 | IND 23 @ CIN 24 | CIN | CIN -11 |
| 2015-01-04 | 2014 Wild Card | CIN 10 @ IND 26 | IND | IND -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away