INDCIN
Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Colts -8.0.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 2.5 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bengals win 7,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to Bengals in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 2,780 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 15th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Bengals 11th (54.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -7.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.3 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · CIN n/a | IND 28% · CIN 72% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +260 · CIN -260 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 27, IND 20.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 8 and CIN by 24.
Side by side
| IND | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-10 | 2023 Wk 14 | IND 14 @ CIN 34 | CIN | CIN -3 |
| 2020-10-18 | 2020 Wk 6 | CIN 27 @ IND 31 | IND | IND -7.5 |
| 2018-09-09 | 2018 Wk 1 | CIN 34 @ IND 23 | CIN | CIN -1 |
| 2017-10-29 | 2017 Wk 8 | IND 23 @ CIN 24 | CIN | CIN -11 |
| 2015-01-04 | 2014 Wild Card | CIN 10 @ IND 26 | IND | IND -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away