CINLA
Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Simulation: Rams win 5,710 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Bengals cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Rams play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 1.2 points stronger.
- Strength: Rams rank 5th in defense, EPA per play allowed (-0.06).
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Turnover margin per game: Bengals rank 8th (+0.5), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Upset odds: Bengals win 4,290 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bengals rank 2nd (9.4%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Rams 12th (+1.6).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to Bengals in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -2.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.5 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · LA n/a | CIN 43% · LA 57% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN +133 · LA -133 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 26, CIN 24.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 14 and LA by 19.
Side by side
| CIN | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-25 | 2023 Wk 3 | LA 16 @ CIN 19 | CIN | CIN -3 |
| 2022-02-13 | 2021 Super Bowl | LA 23 @ CIN 20 | LA | LA -4.5 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | CIN 10 @ LA 24 | LA | LA -12 |
| 2015-11-29 | 2015 Wk 12 | LA 7 @ CIN 31 | CIN | CIN -10.5 |
| 2011-12-18 | 2011 Wk 15 | CIN 20 @ LA 13 | CIN | CIN -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away