LACIN
Los Angeles Rams @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Turnover margin per game: Bengals rank 8th (+0.5), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bengals rank 2nd (9.4%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Travel: Rams cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Bengals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Bengals win 5,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Rams win 4,780 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 1.2 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -0.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.5 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · CIN n/a | LA 48% · CIN 52% |
| Fair moneyline | LA +109 · CIN -109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 26, LA 24.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 15 and CIN by 18.
Side by side
| LA | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-25 | 2023 Wk 3 | LA 16 @ CIN 19 | CIN | CIN -3 |
| 2022-02-13 | 2021 Super Bowl | LA 23 @ CIN 20 | LA | LA -4.5 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | CIN 10 @ LA 24 | LA | LA -12 |
| 2015-11-29 | 2015 Wk 12 | LA 7 @ CIN 31 | CIN | CIN -10.5 |
| 2011-12-18 | 2011 Wk 15 | CIN 20 @ LA 13 | CIN | CIN -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away