CINLAC
Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Chargers -9.7.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 2.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bengals win 6,700 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 3,300 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Travel: Bengals cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 11 or more.
- History: Chargers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -4.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.2 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · LAC n/a | CIN 67% · LAC 33% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN -203 · LAC +203 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 21, CIN 26.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 21 and LAC by 11.
Side by side
| CIN | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 0-6 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | CIN 27 @ LAC 34 | LAC | LAC -1 |
| 2021-12-05 | 2021 Wk 13 | LAC 41 @ CIN 22 | LAC | CIN -2.5 |
| 2020-09-13 | 2020 Wk 1 | LAC 16 @ CIN 13 | LAC | LAC -2.5 |
| 2018-12-09 | 2018 Wk 14 | CIN 21 @ LAC 26 | LAC | LAC -17 |
| 2015-09-20 | 2015 Wk 2 | LAC 19 @ CIN 24 | CIN | CIN -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away