LACCIN
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.4 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Chargers -9.7.
- Simulation: Bengals win 7,400 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 2.2 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 2,600 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 8 or more.
- History: Chargers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -7.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.2 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · CIN n/a | LAC 26% · CIN 74% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +285 · CIN -285 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 27, LAC 20.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 8 and CIN by 25.
Side by side
| LAC | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 4-2 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | CIN 27 @ LAC 34 | LAC | LAC -1 |
| 2021-12-05 | 2021 Wk 13 | LAC 41 @ CIN 22 | LAC | CIN -2.5 |
| 2020-09-13 | 2020 Wk 1 | LAC 16 @ CIN 13 | LAC | LAC -2.5 |
| 2018-12-09 | 2018 Wk 14 | CIN 21 @ LAC 26 | LAC | LAC -17 |
| 2015-09-20 | 2015 Wk 2 | LAC 19 @ CIN 24 | CIN | CIN -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away