CINMIN
Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Home field: Vikings play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Vikings win 5,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Bengals 8th (+0.5).
- Strength: Vikings rank 1st in point differential per game (+8.5).
- Strength: Vikings rank 1st in defense, EPA per play allowed (-0.19).
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Bengals win 4,730 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Bengals rank 8th (4.4%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 0.8 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -0.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.5 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · MIN n/a | CIN 47% · MIN 53% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN +111 · MIN -111 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 23, CIN 22.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 15 and MIN by 18.
Side by side
| CIN | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 6-0 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | CIN 10 @ MIN 48 | MIN | MIN -3 |
| 2023-12-16 | 2023 Wk 15 | MIN 24 @ CIN 27 | CIN | CIN -3 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | MIN 24 @ CIN 27 | CIN | MIN -3 |
| 2017-12-17 | 2017 Wk 15 | CIN 7 @ MIN 34 | MIN | MIN -12.5 |
| 2013-12-22 | 2013 Wk 16 | MIN 14 @ CIN 42 | CIN | CIN -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away