MINCIN
Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Simulation: Bengals win 5,690 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Bengals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Bengals rank 8th (4.4%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 0.8 points stronger.
- Strength: Bengals rank 1st in field goal percentage (100.0%).
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Vikings win 4,310 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 14 or more.
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Bengals 8th (+0.5).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.5 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · CIN n/a | MIN 43% · CIN 57% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +132 · CIN -132 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 24, MIN 21.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 14 and CIN by 19.
Side by side
| MIN | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 4-2 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | CIN 10 @ MIN 48 | MIN | MIN -3 |
| 2023-12-16 | 2023 Wk 15 | MIN 24 @ CIN 27 | CIN | CIN -3 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | MIN 24 @ CIN 27 | CIN | MIN -3 |
| 2017-12-17 | 2017 Wk 15 | CIN 7 @ MIN 34 | MIN | MIN -12.5 |
| 2013-12-22 | 2013 Wk 16 | MIN 14 @ CIN 42 | CIN | CIN -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away