CINNYG
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 4.8 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bengals win 6,910 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Giants 17th (+0.3).
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Home field: Giants play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Giants win 3,090 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -5.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.9 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · NYG n/a | CIN 69% · NYG 31% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN -223 · NYG +223 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 20, CIN 27.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 23 and NYG by 10.
Side by side
| CIN | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | CIN 17 @ NYG 7 | CIN | CIN -4.5 |
| 2020-11-29 | 2020 Wk 12 | NYG 19 @ CIN 17 | NYG | NYG -6.5 |
| 2016-11-14 | 2016 Wk 10 | CIN 20 @ NYG 21 | NYG | CIN -1 |
| 2012-11-11 | 2012 Wk 10 | NYG 13 @ CIN 31 | CIN | NYG -3.5 |
| 2008-09-21 | 2008 Wk 3 | CIN 23 @ NYG 26 | NYG | NYG -13 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away