NYGCIN
New York Giants @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
77% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 77% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 4.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bengals win 7,720 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.7 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Giants 17th (+0.3).
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Upset odds: Giants win 2,280 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -8.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.9 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · CIN n/a | NYG 23% · CIN 77% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +338 · CIN -338 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 27, NYG 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 7 and CIN by 26.
Side by side
| NYG | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 4-2 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | CIN 17 @ NYG 7 | CIN | CIN -4.5 |
| 2020-11-29 | 2020 Wk 12 | NYG 19 @ CIN 17 | NYG | NYG -6.5 |
| 2016-11-14 | 2016 Wk 10 | CIN 20 @ NYG 21 | NYG | CIN -1 |
| 2012-11-11 | 2012 Wk 10 | NYG 13 @ CIN 31 | CIN | NYG -3.5 |
| 2008-09-21 | 2008 Wk 3 | CIN 23 @ NYG 26 | NYG | NYG -13 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away