CINSEA
Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Simulation: Seahawks win 5,960 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Bengals cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Seahawks play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 1.1 points stronger.
- Strength: Seahawks rank 1st in explosive plays allowed per game (1.4).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Bengals win 4,040 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Turnover margin per game: Bengals rank 8th (+0.5), Seahawks 18th (-0.1).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -3.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · SEA n/a | CIN 40% · SEA 60% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN +147 · SEA -147 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 24, CIN 21.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 13 and SEA by 20.
Side by side
| CIN | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-15 | 2023 Wk 6 | SEA 13 @ CIN 17 | CIN | CIN -3 |
| 2019-09-08 | 2019 Wk 1 | CIN 20 @ SEA 21 | SEA | SEA -9.5 |
| 2015-10-11 | 2015 Wk 5 | SEA 24 @ CIN 27 | CIN | CIN -3 |
| 2011-10-30 | 2011 Wk 8 | CIN 34 @ SEA 12 | CIN | CIN -1 |
| 2007-09-23 | 2007 Wk 3 | CIN 21 @ SEA 24 | SEA | SEA -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away