SEACIN
Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 1.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 5,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Strength: Seahawks rank 1st in explosive plays allowed per game (1.4).
- Strength: Seahawks rank 2nd in defense, EPA per play allowed (-0.13).
- Strength: Seahawks rank 2nd in pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed (-0.14).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Upset odds: Bengals win 4,880 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Travel: Seahawks cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Bengals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · CIN n/a | SEA 51% · CIN 49% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -105 · CIN +105 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 23, SEA 23.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 17 and CIN by 17.
Side by side
| SEA | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-2 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-15 | 2023 Wk 6 | SEA 13 @ CIN 17 | CIN | CIN -3 |
| 2019-09-08 | 2019 Wk 1 | CIN 20 @ SEA 21 | SEA | SEA -9.5 |
| 2015-10-11 | 2015 Wk 5 | SEA 24 @ CIN 27 | CIN | CIN -3 |
| 2011-10-30 | 2011 Wk 8 | CIN 34 @ SEA 12 | CIN | CIN -1 |
| 2007-09-23 | 2007 Wk 3 | CIN 21 @ SEA 24 | SEA | SEA -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away