CINSF
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Simulation: 49ers win 5,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Bengals cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: 49ers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: 49ers rank 4th (4.0), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 15th against it.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Upset odds: Bengals win 4,450 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, 49ers +0.0.
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the 49ers defense that ranks 14th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Bengals rank 8th (+0.5), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -2.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.8 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · SF n/a | CIN 44% · SF 56% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN +125 · SF -125 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 26, CIN 24.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 15 and SF by 19.
Side by side
| CIN | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 6-1 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-29 | 2023 Wk 8 | CIN 31 @ SF 17 | CIN | SF -4 |
| 2021-12-12 | 2021 Wk 14 | SF 26 @ CIN 23 | SF | SF -2.5 |
| 2019-09-15 | 2019 Wk 2 | SF 41 @ CIN 17 | SF | CIN -1 |
| 2015-12-20 | 2015 Wk 15 | CIN 24 @ SF 14 | CIN | CIN -7 |
| 2011-09-25 | 2011 Wk 3 | SF 13 @ CIN 8 | SF | CIN -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away