SFCIN
San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, 49ers +0.0.
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Simulation: Bengals win 5,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: 49ers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Bengals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: 49ers win 4,640 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: 49ers rank 4th (4.0), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 15th against it.
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 7th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.8 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · CIN n/a | SF 46% · CIN 54% |
| Fair moneyline | SF +116 · CIN -116 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 26, SF 24.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 15 and CIN by 18.
Side by side
| SF | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 4-2 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-29 | 2023 Wk 8 | CIN 31 @ SF 17 | CIN | SF -4 |
| 2021-12-12 | 2021 Wk 14 | SF 26 @ CIN 23 | SF | SF -2.5 |
| 2019-09-15 | 2019 Wk 2 | SF 41 @ CIN 17 | SF | CIN -1 |
| 2015-12-20 | 2015 Wk 15 | CIN 24 @ SF 14 | CIN | CIN -7 |
| 2011-09-25 | 2011 Wk 3 | SF 13 @ CIN 8 | SF | CIN -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away