CINTB
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Any-day matchup, Buccaneers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 3.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bengals win 5,980 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Buccaneers 12th (+1.6).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Bengals rank 8th (4.4%), Buccaneers 29th (9.7%).
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 4,020 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Buccaneers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 15th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -2.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.9 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · TB n/a | CIN 60% · TB 40% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN -149 · TB +149 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TB 23, CIN 24.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 20 and TB by 14.
Side by side
| CIN | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 21.6 14 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | -0.08 28 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.12 3 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | TB 27 @ CIN 33 | CIN | CIN -3.5 |
| 2022-12-18 | 2022 Wk 15 | CIN 34 @ TB 23 | CIN | CIN -3.5 |
| 2018-10-28 | 2018 Wk 8 | TB 34 @ CIN 37 | CIN | CIN -3.5 |
| 2014-11-30 | 2014 Wk 13 | CIN 14 @ TB 13 | CIN | CIN -6 |
| 2010-10-10 | 2010 Wk 5 | TB 24 @ CIN 21 | TB | CIN -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away