TBCIN
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 2.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bengals win 6,850 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Bengals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Buccaneers 12th (+1.6).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to Bengals in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,150 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 15th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -5.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.9 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · CIN n/a | TB 32% · CIN 68% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +218 · CIN -218 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 27, TB 20.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 10 and CIN by 23.
Side by side
| TB | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | TB 27 @ CIN 33 | CIN | CIN -3.5 |
| 2022-12-18 | 2022 Wk 15 | CIN 34 @ TB 23 | CIN | CIN -3.5 |
| 2018-10-28 | 2018 Wk 8 | TB 34 @ CIN 37 | CIN | CIN -3.5 |
| 2014-11-30 | 2014 Wk 13 | CIN 14 @ TB 13 | CIN | CIN -6 |
| 2010-10-10 | 2010 Wk 5 | TB 24 @ CIN 21 | TB | CIN -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away