CLEDAL
Cleveland Browns @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 4.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 6,960 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cowboys rank 1st (2.5%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Point differential per game: Cowboys rank 14th (+1.3), Browns 21st (-1.9).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Browns passing game (21st in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Upset odds: Browns win 3,040 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Cowboys 25th (4.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Cowboys rank 32nd in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.14).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -6.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.3 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · DAL n/a | CLE 30% · DAL 70% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +228 · DAL -228 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 27, CLE 20.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 10 and DAL by 23.
Side by side
| CLE | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | DAL 33 @ CLE 17 | DAL | CLE -2.5 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | CLE 49 @ DAL 38 | CLE | DAL -3.5 |
| 2016-11-06 | 2016 Wk 9 | DAL 35 @ CLE 10 | DAL | DAL -7 |
| 2012-11-18 | 2012 Wk 11 | CLE 20 @ DAL 23 | DAL | DAL -7 |
| 2008-09-07 | 2008 Wk 1 | DAL 28 @ CLE 10 | DAL | DAL -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away