DALCLE
Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 4.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 6,240 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cowboys rank 1st (2.5%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
- Point differential per game: Cowboys rank 14th (+1.3), Browns 21st (-1.9).
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Browns defense that ranks 14th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Upset odds: Browns win 3,760 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Browns passing game (21st in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Cowboys 25th (4.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -3.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.3 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · CLE n/a | DAL 62% · CLE 38% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -166 · CLE +166 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 21, DAL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 20 and CLE by 13.
Side by side
| DAL | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | DAL 33 @ CLE 17 | DAL | CLE -2.5 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | CLE 49 @ DAL 38 | CLE | DAL -3.5 |
| 2016-11-06 | 2016 Wk 9 | DAL 35 @ CLE 10 | DAL | DAL -7 |
| 2012-11-18 | 2012 Wk 11 | CLE 20 @ DAL 23 | DAL | DAL -7 |
| 2008-09-07 | 2008 Wk 1 | DAL 28 @ CLE 10 | DAL | DAL -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away