CLEDET
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 4.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Lions win 7,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Browns 21st (-1.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Browns +0.3.
- Home field: Lions play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Upset odds: Browns win 2,550 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Browns passing game (21st in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 29th in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.12).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -7.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.3 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · DET n/a | CLE 26% · DET 74% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +292 · DET -292 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 27, CLE 20.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 8 and DET by 25.
Side by side
| CLE | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | 2025 Wk 4 | CLE 10 @ DET 34 | DET | DET -10 |
| 2021-11-21 | 2021 Wk 11 | DET 10 @ CLE 13 | CLE | CLE -13 |
| 2017-11-12 | 2017 Wk 10 | CLE 24 @ DET 38 | DET | DET -10.5 |
| 2013-10-13 | 2013 Wk 6 | DET 31 @ CLE 17 | DET | DET -1 |
| 2009-11-22 | 2009 Wk 11 | CLE 37 @ DET 38 | DET | DET -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away