DETCLE
Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 4.8 points stronger.
- Simulation: Lions win 6,560 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Browns 21st (-1.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Browns +0.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Lions in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Upset odds: Browns win 3,440 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Browns passing game (21st in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -4.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.3 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · CLE n/a | DET 66% · CLE 34% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -190 · CLE +190 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 21, DET 26.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 21 and CLE by 12.
Side by side
| DET | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | 2025 Wk 4 | CLE 10 @ DET 34 | DET | DET -10 |
| 2021-11-21 | 2021 Wk 11 | DET 10 @ CLE 13 | CLE | CLE -13 |
| 2017-11-12 | 2017 Wk 10 | CLE 24 @ DET 38 | DET | DET -10.5 |
| 2013-10-13 | 2013 Wk 6 | DET 31 @ CLE 17 | DET | DET -1 |
| 2009-11-22 | 2009 Wk 11 | CLE 37 @ DET 38 | DET | DET -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away