CLELAC
Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LACLos Angeles Chargers
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chargers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chargers about 2.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Chargers win 5,770 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Browns cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- History: Chargers won 5 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
Disadvantages Why the Chargers may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Browns +0.3, Chargers -9.7.
- Upset odds: Browns win 4,230 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Browns in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Browns rank 21st (-1.9), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Turnover margin per game: Browns rank 16th (+0.0), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.6 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · LAC n/a | CLE 42% · LAC 58% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +136 · LAC -136 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 21, CLE 20.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 14 and LAC by 19.
Side by side
| CLE | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 0-6 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | LAC 27 @ CLE 10 | LAC | LAC -2 |
| 2022-10-09 | 2022 Wk 5 | LAC 30 @ CLE 28 | LAC | LAC -1 |
| 2021-10-10 | 2021 Wk 5 | CLE 42 @ LAC 47 | LAC | LAC -2.5 |
| 2018-10-14 | 2018 Wk 6 | LAC 38 @ CLE 14 | LAC | CLE -1 |
| 2017-12-03 | 2017 Wk 13 | CLE 10 @ LAC 19 | LAC | LAC -13.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away