LACCLE
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Browns
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Browns can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Browns +0.3, Chargers -9.7.
- Point differential per game: Browns rank 21st (-1.9), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Browns in our ratings.
- Travel: Chargers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Browns may not
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chargers about 2.2 points stronger.
- Upset odds: Chargers win 4,920 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Browns lose by 16 or more.
- History: Chargers won 5 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Browns rank 32nd in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (10.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -0.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.6 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · CLE n/a | LAC 49% · CLE 51% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +103 · CLE -103 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 21, LAC 20.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 16 and CLE by 17.
Side by side
| LAC | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 5-2 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | LAC 27 @ CLE 10 | LAC | LAC -2 |
| 2022-10-09 | 2022 Wk 5 | LAC 30 @ CLE 28 | LAC | LAC -1 |
| 2021-10-10 | 2021 Wk 5 | CLE 42 @ LAC 47 | LAC | LAC -2.5 |
| 2018-10-14 | 2018 Wk 6 | LAC 38 @ CLE 14 | LAC | CLE -1 |
| 2017-12-03 | 2017 Wk 13 | CLE 10 @ LAC 19 | LAC | LAC -13.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away