CLELV
Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LVLas Vegas Raiders
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Raiders can win
- Simulation: Raiders win 5,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
- Travel: Browns cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Browns 16th (+0.0).
Disadvantages Why the Raiders may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Browns +0.3, Raiders -15.0.
- Upset odds: Browns win 4,390 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Browns passing game (21st in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Raiders lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Raiders rank 32nd in running game, EPA per carry (-0.27).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LV -1.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.5 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · LV n/a | CLE 44% · LV 56% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +128 · LV -128 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 23, CLE 21.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 14 and LV by 18.
Side by side
| CLE | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | CLE 24 @ LV 10 | CLE | LV -3 |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | CLE 16 @ LV 20 | LV | CLE -2.5 |
| 2021-12-20 | 2021 Wk 15 | LV 16 @ CLE 14 | LV | LV -3 |
| 2020-11-01 | 2020 Wk 8 | LV 16 @ CLE 6 | LV | CLE -1 |
| 2018-09-30 | 2018 Wk 4 | CLE 42 @ LV 45 | LV | LV -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away