LVCLE
Las Vegas Raiders @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Browns
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Browns can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Browns +0.3, Raiders -15.0.
- Simulation: Browns win 5,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Raiders cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Browns passing game (21st in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Browns may not
- Upset odds: Raiders win 4,530 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Browns 16th (+0.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Browns lose by 14 or more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Raiders about 0.6 points stronger.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.5 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · CLE n/a | LV 45% · CLE 55% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +121 · CLE -121 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 23, LV 21.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 14 and CLE by 18.
Side by side
| LV | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | CLE 24 @ LV 10 | CLE | LV -3 |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | CLE 16 @ LV 20 | LV | CLE -2.5 |
| 2021-12-20 | 2021 Wk 15 | LV 16 @ CLE 14 | LV | LV -3 |
| 2020-11-01 | 2020 Wk 8 | LV 16 @ CLE 6 | LV | CLE -1 |
| 2018-09-30 | 2018 Wk 4 | CLE 42 @ LV 45 | LV | LV -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away