CLENE
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 3.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: Patriots win 7,230 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Browns +0.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Browns 21st (-1.9).
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Turnover margin per game: Browns rank 16th (+0.0), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Upset odds: Browns win 2,770 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Patriots 13th (7.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -7 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.3 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · NE n/a | CLE 28% · NE 72% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +261 · NE -261 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 24, CLE 17.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 9 and NE by 24.
Side by side
| CLE | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | 2025 Wk 8 | CLE 13 @ NE 32 | NE | NE -7 |
| 2022-10-16 | 2022 Wk 6 | NE 38 @ CLE 15 | NE | CLE -2.5 |
| 2021-11-14 | 2021 Wk 10 | CLE 7 @ NE 45 | NE | NE -2.5 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | CLE 13 @ NE 27 | NE | NE -9.5 |
| 2016-10-09 | 2016 Wk 5 | NE 33 @ CLE 13 | NE | NE -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away