NECLE
New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 3.5 points stronger.
- Simulation: Patriots win 6,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Browns +0.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Browns 21st (-1.9).
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Upset odds: Browns win 3,530 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Browns rank 16th (+0.0), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -3.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.3 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · CLE n/a | NE 65% · CLE 35% |
| Fair moneyline | NE -183 · CLE +183 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 20, NE 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 21 and CLE by 12.
Side by side
| NE | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | 2025 Wk 8 | CLE 13 @ NE 32 | NE | NE -7 |
| 2022-10-16 | 2022 Wk 6 | NE 38 @ CLE 15 | NE | CLE -2.5 |
| 2021-11-14 | 2021 Wk 10 | CLE 7 @ NE 45 | NE | NE -2.5 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | CLE 13 @ NE 27 | NE | NE -9.5 |
| 2016-10-09 | 2016 Wk 5 | NE 33 @ CLE 13 | NE | NE -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away