CLENO
Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NONew Orleans Saints
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Saints can win
- Simulation: Saints win 5,580 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Saints about 1.0 points stronger.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Saints rank 13th (5.2%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
- Strength: Saints rank 2nd in penalty yards per game (43.6).
Disadvantages Why the Saints may not
- Upset odds: Browns win 4,420 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Browns rank 16th (+0.0), Saints 28th (-0.6).
- Browns running game (21st in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Saints lose by 14 or more.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to Browns in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NO -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.6 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · NO n/a | CLE 44% · NO 56% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +126 · NO -126 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 23, CLE 20.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 14 and NO by 18.
Side by side
| CLE | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | CLE 14 @ NO 35 | NO | CLE -1 |
| 2022-12-24 | 2022 Wk 16 | NO 17 @ CLE 10 | NO | CLE -3 |
| 2018-09-16 | 2018 Wk 2 | CLE 18 @ NO 21 | NO | NO -10 |
| 2014-09-14 | 2014 Wk 2 | NO 24 @ CLE 26 | CLE | NO -4.5 |
| 2010-10-24 | 2010 Wk 7 | CLE 30 @ NO 17 | CLE | NO -12 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away