NOCLE
New Orleans Saints @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Browns
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Browns can win
- Simulation: Browns win 5,390 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Browns rank 16th (+0.0), Saints 28th (-0.6).
- Browns running game (21st in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Browns rank 17th (3.6), Saints 26th (2.9).
Disadvantages Why the Browns may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 4,610 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Saints about 1.1 points stronger.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Saints rank 13th (5.2%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Browns lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Browns rank 32nd in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (10.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.6 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · CLE n/a | NO 46% · CLE 54% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +117 · CLE -117 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 23, NO 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 15 and CLE by 18.
Side by side
| NO | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | CLE 14 @ NO 35 | NO | CLE -1 |
| 2022-12-24 | 2022 Wk 16 | NO 17 @ CLE 10 | NO | CLE -3 |
| 2018-09-16 | 2018 Wk 2 | CLE 18 @ NO 21 | NO | NO -10 |
| 2014-09-14 | 2014 Wk 2 | NO 24 @ CLE 26 | CLE | NO -4.5 |
| 2010-10-24 | 2010 Wk 7 | CLE 30 @ NO 17 | CLE | NO -12 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away