CLENYG
Cleveland Browns @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYGNew York Giants
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Giants can win
- Simulation: Giants win 5,370 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Giants play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Browns 17th (3.6).
- Strength: Giants rank 6th in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.9).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Giants rank 25th (8.0%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
Disadvantages Why the Giants may not
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Upset odds: Browns win 4,630 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Giants 29th (3.9%).
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Giants lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYG -1.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.3 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · NYG n/a | CLE 46% · NYG 54% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +116 · NYG -116 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 21, CLE 20.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 15 and NYG by 18.
Side by side
| CLE | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | NYG 21 @ CLE 15 | NYG | CLE -6.5 |
| 2020-12-20 | 2020 Wk 15 | CLE 20 @ NYG 6 | CLE | CLE -6 |
| 2016-11-27 | 2016 Wk 12 | NYG 27 @ CLE 13 | NYG | NYG -6.5 |
| 2012-10-07 | 2012 Wk 5 | CLE 27 @ NYG 41 | NYG | NYG -7.5 |
| 2008-10-13 | 2008 Wk 6 | NYG 14 @ CLE 35 | CLE | NYG -9 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away