NYGCLE
New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Browns
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Browns can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Simulation: Browns win 5,520 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Giants 29th (3.9%).
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
Disadvantages Why the Browns may not
- Upset odds: Giants win 4,480 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Browns 17th (3.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Browns lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Browns rank 32nd in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (10.6%).
- Weak spot: Browns rank 28th in points per game (19.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.3 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · CLE n/a | NYG 45% · CLE 55% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +123 · CLE -123 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 21, NYG 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 14 and CLE by 18.
Side by side
| NYG | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | NYG 21 @ CLE 15 | NYG | CLE -6.5 |
| 2020-12-20 | 2020 Wk 15 | CLE 20 @ NYG 6 | CLE | CLE -6 |
| 2016-11-27 | 2016 Wk 12 | NYG 27 @ CLE 13 | NYG | NYG -6.5 |
| 2012-10-07 | 2012 Wk 5 | CLE 27 @ NYG 41 | NYG | NYG -7.5 |
| 2008-10-13 | 2008 Wk 6 | NYG 14 @ CLE 35 | CLE | NYG -9 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away