CLESEA
Cleveland Browns @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
82% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 82% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 5.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 8,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Browns 21st (-1.9).
- Travel: Browns cross 3 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Browns win 1,830 of 10,000 simulations (18%). A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 5 or more.
- Weak spot: Seahawks rank 28th in running game, EPA per carry (-0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -10.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.1 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · SEA n/a | CLE 18% · SEA 82% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +446 · SEA -446 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 26, CLE 14.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 5 and SEA by 27.
Side by side
| CLE | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-29 | 2023 Wk 8 | CLE 20 @ SEA 24 | SEA | SEA -4 |
| 2019-10-13 | 2019 Wk 6 | SEA 32 @ CLE 28 | SEA | CLE -1 |
| 2015-12-20 | 2015 Wk 15 | CLE 13 @ SEA 30 | SEA | SEA -14.5 |
| 2011-10-23 | 2011 Wk 7 | SEA 3 @ CLE 6 | CLE | CLE -3 |
| 2007-11-04 | 2007 Wk 9 | SEA 30 @ CLE 33 | CLE | CLE -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away