SEACLE
Seattle Seahawks @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
75% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 75% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 5.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 7,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Browns 21st (-1.9).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Seahawks rank 18th (6.6%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Travel: Seahawks cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Browns win 2,490 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -7.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.1 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · CLE n/a | SEA 75% · CLE 25% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -302 · CLE +302 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 17, SEA 24.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 24 and CLE by 8.
Side by side
| SEA | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-29 | 2023 Wk 8 | CLE 20 @ SEA 24 | SEA | SEA -4 |
| 2019-10-13 | 2019 Wk 6 | SEA 32 @ CLE 28 | SEA | CLE -1 |
| 2015-12-20 | 2015 Wk 15 | CLE 13 @ SEA 30 | SEA | SEA -14.5 |
| 2011-10-23 | 2011 Wk 7 | SEA 3 @ CLE 6 | CLE | CLE -3 |
| 2007-11-04 | 2007 Wk 9 | SEA 30 @ CLE 33 | CLE | CLE -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away