CLETEN
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Browns
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Browns can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Browns in our ratings.
- Simulation: Browns win 5,710 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Browns about 1.4 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Browns +0.3, Titans -6.7.
- Point differential per game: Browns rank 21st (-1.9), Titans 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Browns may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 4,290 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Browns lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Browns rank 32nd in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (10.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 39.9 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · TEN n/a | CLE 57% · TEN 43% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE -133 · TEN +133 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 19, CLE 20.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 18 and TEN by 14.
Side by side
| CLE | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 1-6 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026 Wk 7 | CLE 27 @ TEN 24 | CLE | CLE -1.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | TEN 31 @ CLE 29 | TEN | CLE -4.5 |
| 2023-09-24 | 2023 Wk 3 | TEN 3 @ CLE 27 | CLE | CLE -3.5 |
| 2020-12-06 | 2020 Wk 13 | CLE 41 @ TEN 35 | CLE | TEN -4 |
| 2019-09-08 | 2019 Wk 1 | TEN 43 @ CLE 13 | TEN | CLE -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away