TENCLE
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Browns
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Browns can win
- Simulation: Browns win 6,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Browns in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Browns +0.3, Titans -6.7.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Browns about 1.3 points stronger.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Browns may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 3,400 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Browns lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Browns rank 32nd in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (10.6%).
- Weak spot: Browns rank 28th in points per game (19.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -4.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 39.9 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · CLE n/a | TEN 34% · CLE 66% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +194 · CLE -194 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 23, TEN 17.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 11 and CLE by 21.
Side by side
| TEN | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 5-2 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026 Wk 7 | CLE 27 @ TEN 24 | CLE | CLE -1.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | TEN 31 @ CLE 29 | TEN | CLE -4.5 |
| 2023-09-24 | 2023 Wk 3 | TEN 3 @ CLE 27 | CLE | CLE -3.5 |
| 2020-12-06 | 2020 Wk 13 | CLE 41 @ TEN 35 | CLE | TEN -4 |
| 2019-09-08 | 2019 Wk 1 | TEN 43 @ CLE 13 | TEN | CLE -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away