CLEWAS
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
WASWashington Commanders
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Commanders can win
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Browns 16th (+0.0).
- Simulation: Commanders win 5,200 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Commanders rank 16th (6.5%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
- Strength: Commanders rank 2nd in turnover margin per game (+1.0).
Disadvantages Why the Commanders may not
- Upset odds: Browns win 4,800 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Browns +0.3, Commanders -7.7.
- Browns running game (21st in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to Browns in our ratings.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Commanders 23rd (4.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WAS -0.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 44 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · WAS n/a | CLE 48% · WAS 52% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +108 · WAS -108 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 23, CLE 21.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 16 and WAS by 17.
Side by side
| CLE | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 5 | CLE 13 @ WAS 34 | WAS | WAS -3 |
| 2023-01-01 | 2022 Wk 17 | CLE 24 @ WAS 10 | CLE | WAS -1 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | WAS 20 @ CLE 34 | CLE | CLE -7.5 |
| 2016-10-02 | 2016 Wk 4 | CLE 20 @ WAS 31 | WAS | WAS -7.5 |
| 2012-12-16 | 2012 Wk 15 | WAS 38 @ CLE 21 | WAS | CLE -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away