WASCLE
Washington Commanders @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Browns
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Browns can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Browns +0.3, Commanders -7.7.
- Simulation: Browns win 5,800 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Browns running game (21st in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to Browns in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Browns may not
- Upset odds: Commanders win 4,200 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Browns 16th (+0.0).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Commanders rank 16th (6.5%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Browns lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Browns rank 32nd in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (10.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 44 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · CLE n/a | WAS 42% · CLE 58% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +138 · CLE -138 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 23, WAS 20.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 14 and CLE by 20.
Side by side
| WAS | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 5 | CLE 13 @ WAS 34 | WAS | WAS -3 |
| 2023-01-01 | 2022 Wk 17 | CLE 24 @ WAS 10 | CLE | WAS -1 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | WAS 20 @ CLE 34 | CLE | CLE -7.5 |
| 2016-10-02 | 2016 Wk 4 | CLE 20 @ WAS 31 | WAS | WAS -7.5 |
| 2012-12-16 | 2012 Wk 15 | WAS 38 @ CLE 21 | WAS | CLE -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away