DALDEN
Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Cowboys -0.3.
- Simulation: Broncos win 5,640 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Broncos passing game (24th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 4,360 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 14 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Cowboys rank 21st (3.1), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.1 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · DEN n/a | DAL 44% · DEN 56% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +129 · DEN -129 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 26, DAL 23.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 14 and DEN by 19.
Side by side
| DAL | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | 2025 Wk 8 | DAL 24 @ DEN 44 | DEN | DEN -3.5 |
| 2021-11-07 | 2021 Wk 9 | DEN 30 @ DAL 16 | DEN | DAL -10.5 |
| 2017-09-17 | 2017 Wk 2 | DAL 17 @ DEN 42 | DEN | DAL -2.5 |
| 2013-10-06 | 2013 Wk 5 | DEN 51 @ DAL 48 | DEN | DEN -7.5 |
| 2009-10-04 | 2009 Wk 4 | DAL 10 @ DEN 17 | DEN | DAL -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away