DENDAL
Denver Broncos @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 5,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Strength: Cowboys rank 1st in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (2.5%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Cowboys rank 21st (3.1), Broncos 29th (2.3).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Upset odds: Broncos win 4,830 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Cowboys -0.3.
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
- Broncos passing game (24th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Broncos running game (15th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.1 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · DAL n/a | DEN 48% · DAL 52% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +107 · DAL -107 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 24, DEN 24.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 16 and DAL by 17.
Side by side
| DEN | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | 2025 Wk 8 | DAL 24 @ DEN 44 | DEN | DEN -3.5 |
| 2021-11-07 | 2021 Wk 9 | DEN 30 @ DAL 16 | DEN | DAL -10.5 |
| 2017-09-17 | 2017 Wk 2 | DAL 17 @ DEN 42 | DEN | DAL -2.5 |
| 2013-10-06 | 2013 Wk 5 | DEN 51 @ DAL 48 | DEN | DEN -7.5 |
| 2009-10-04 | 2009 Wk 4 | DAL 10 @ DEN 17 | DEN | DAL -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away