DALDET
Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Cowboys -0.3.
- Simulation: Lions win 5,710 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Lions play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Lions rank 8th (+0.5), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 4,290 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -2.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 56.1 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · DET n/a | DAL 43% · DET 57% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +133 · DET -133 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 30, DAL 27.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 14 and DET by 20.
Side by side
| DAL | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | 2025 Wk 14 | DAL 30 @ DET 44 | DET | DET -3.5 |
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | DET 47 @ DAL 9 | DET | DET -3.5 |
| 2023-12-30 | 2023 Wk 17 | DET 19 @ DAL 20 | DAL | DAL -5.5 |
| 2022-10-23 | 2022 Wk 7 | DET 6 @ DAL 24 | DAL | DAL -7 |
| 2019-11-17 | 2019 Wk 11 | DAL 35 @ DET 27 | DAL | DAL -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away