DETDAL
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 5,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Strength: Cowboys rank 1st in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (2.5%).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Upset odds: Lions win 4,890 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Cowboys -0.3.
- Turnover margin per game: Lions rank 8th (+0.5), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Lions rank 7th (7.5%), Cowboys 25th (4.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -0.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 56.1 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · DAL n/a | DET 49% · DAL 51% |
| Fair moneyline | DET +105 · DAL -105 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 28, DET 27.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 17 and DAL by 17.
Side by side
| DET | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | 2025 Wk 14 | DAL 30 @ DET 44 | DET | DET -3.5 |
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | DET 47 @ DAL 9 | DET | DET -3.5 |
| 2023-12-30 | 2023 Wk 17 | DET 19 @ DAL 20 | DAL | DAL -5.5 |
| 2022-10-23 | 2022 Wk 7 | DET 6 @ DAL 24 | DAL | DAL -7 |
| 2019-11-17 | 2019 Wk 11 | DAL 35 @ DET 27 | DAL | DAL -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away