DALGB
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Simulation: Packers win 5,500 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Packers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Packers rank 3rd (4.5), Cowboys 21st (3.1).
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 4,500 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 0.8 points stronger.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -1.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.6 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · GB n/a | DAL 45% · GB 55% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +122 · GB -122 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 26, DAL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 14 and GB by 18.
Side by side
| DAL | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-3 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 2026 Wk 6 | DAL 13 @ GB 23 | GB | DAL -1.5 |
| 2025-09-28 | 2025 Wk 4 | GB 40 @ DAL 40 | Tie | GB -7 |
| 2024-01-14 | 2023 Wild Card | GB 48 @ DAL 32 | GB | DAL -7 |
| 2022-11-13 | 2022 Wk 10 | DAL 28 @ GB 31 | GB | DAL -3.5 |
| 2019-10-06 | 2019 Wk 5 | GB 34 @ DAL 24 | GB | DAL -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away