GBDAL
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 5,260 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 0.7 points stronger.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Upset odds: Packers win 4,740 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Packers rank 3rd (4.5), Cowboys 21st (3.1).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Packers rank 11th (7.2%), Cowboys 25th (4.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.6 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · DAL n/a | GB 47% · DAL 53% |
| Fair moneyline | GB +111 · DAL -111 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 26, GB 24.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 15 and DAL by 18.
Side by side
| GB | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 2026 Wk 6 | DAL 13 @ GB 23 | GB | DAL -1.5 |
| 2025-09-28 | 2025 Wk 4 | GB 40 @ DAL 40 | Tie | GB -7 |
| 2024-01-14 | 2023 Wild Card | GB 48 @ DAL 32 | GB | DAL -7 |
| 2022-11-13 | 2022 Wk 10 | DAL 28 @ GB 31 | GB | DAL -3.5 |
| 2019-10-06 | 2019 Wk 5 | GB 34 @ DAL 24 | GB | DAL -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away